US retail sales grew 0.7% m/m in November, higher than the predicted 0.6%, while October’s reading was revised up to 0.5%, from 0.4% previously. Stripping out automotives and gas, however, growth came in below expectations at 0.2%, in line with the previous month and missing the predicted 0.4%. Meanwhile, industrial production fell 0.1% m/m in November, missing the predicted 0.3% growth but beating the previous month’s 0.4% contraction. This marked the third consecutive month of lower output, with utilities and mining driving the fall, while manufacturing logged a disappointing 0.2% m/m growth after a 0.7% fall in October.
CPI inflation in Canada came in slightly lower than expected for November, at 1.9% y/y (compared with expectations that it would remain at 2.0% for a second month running) and 0.0% m/m, down from 0.4% previously. This was the second time in three months that headline annual inflation came in below the central bank’s target rate, giving credibility to the aggressive monetary easing policy stance the bank has adopted.
UK labour market data released yesterday showed a surprise uptick in wage growth, raising questions about the pace by which the Bank of England will be able to cut rates next year. Average weekly earnings for the three months to October were up 5.2% y/y, up from an upwardly revised 4.4% the previous month and compared with a predicted 4.6%. The unemployment rate meanwhile remained at 4.3%. The BoE is meeting this Thursday, with a hold at 4.75% expected.
Germany saw mixed results from its monthly survey releases yesterday. The IFO business climate survey fell to 84.7 on the headline, down from 85.6 in November, with the deterioration coming from the expectations component. This fell to 84.4, down from 87.0 and missing the predicted 87.5, with the political uncertainty in Germany likely contributing to the decline. On the other hand, the current assessment saw a modest improvement, rising to 85.1 from 84.3 previously. Investors were a little more sanguine about the coming months, with the expectations component of the ZEW survey rising to 15.7, from 7.4 in November,
Money supply in the UAE was up 15.7% y/y in September, down from 16.6% the previous month and compare with a ytd average of 16.3%.
Today’s Economic Data and Events
11:00 UK CPI inflation, % y/y, November. Forecast: 2.6%
23:00 US FOMC rate decision. Forecast: 4.50%
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