14 November 2023
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Inflation cools in India

Daily Outlook 14 November 2023

By Edward Bell

Inflation in India dropped to 4.87% y/y in October, down from more than 5% a month earlier. The print did come in hotter than market estimates, however. Food price inflation remained elevated, rising by 6.6% y/y while fuel prices were lower by about 0.4%. The Reserve Bank of India has kept rates unchanged since February but is likely to want to see inflation closer to the mid-range of its inflation targeting band of 2-6%.

Turkey recorded a current account surplus in September of USD 1.9bn, larger than markets had been expecting, and a sharp swing from a deficit of USD 357m in August and more than USD 5.6bn in July. Goods imports dropped more than 10% m/m in September while exports were about 3% higher leading to a sharp reduction in the good deficit to USD 3.7bn from more than USD 7.1bn in August. Services exports remained strong at more than USD 10bn. Turkey also continued to attract portfolio inflows with net USD 1.02bn of inflows to debt and equity securities. Retail sales in Turkey rose by almost 14% y/y in September, their slowest pace of growth since November 2022. On a monthly basis, retail sales fell by 0.7% as consumers cut spending on household goods and electronics.

Dubai’s Department of Finance will sell a 24.99% stake in Dubai Taxi Company with retail investors accounting for 10% of the sale. The price range for the IPO will be announced later in November. The government sold stakes in four government owned companies in 2022, raising USD 8.3bn according to press reports. The expected listing date for the taxi operator is December 7.

Today’s Economic Data and Events

  • 11:00 UK labour market data October
  • 14:00 GE ZEW survey expectations November: forecast 5.0
  • 14:00 EC GDP q/q Q3: forecast -0.1%
  • 17:30 US CPI y/y October: forecast 3.3%

Fixed Income

  • US Treasuries started the week on a stronger footing with no material economic catalyst overnight. Yields on the 2yr UST fell almost 3bps to close at 5.0348% while the 10yr yield dropped 1bps to 4.6499%. The release of the October CPI print later today will set the next trajectory for yields.
  • European bond markets were generally higher overnight though with limited gains. Emerging market bonds were a little softer on the close including GCC bonds.
  • Fitch downgraded several Egyptian banks to ‘B-‘ and put them on stable outlooks. The banks are Commercial International Bank, Banque Misr, Banque du Caire and National Bank of Egypt.

FX

  • The US dollar started the week on a softer footing ahead of today’s CPI report. EURUSD traded higher by 0.1% at 1.0698 while GBPUSD pushed higher by 0.4% to close at 1.2279. The prime minister of the UK, Rishi Sunak, reshuffled his cabinet by removing the home secretary and replacing her with the previous foreign secretary. However, the chancellor of the exchequer Jeremy Hunt was confirmed in his position.
  • USDJPY was the standout among currency majors, moving higher by 0.1% to 151.72 at the expense of the yen. Japan’s finance minister said that “sudden moves” in FX markets would warrant a response which may cap further upside in USDJPY from here.
  • Commodity currencies closed mixed. USDCAD closed near unchanged while AUDUSD rose by 0.3% to 0.6377. NZDUSD drifted lower by 0.2% to 0.5877.

Equities

  • Equity markets settled mixed overnight with strong gains in European markets offset by more muted action in the US. The FTSE 100 in the UK was the star of the day, rising by 0.9% while the EuroStoxx 50 added 0.8%. In contrast, the Dow Jones rose just 0.2% while the S&P 500 and NASDAQ both closed lower.
  • Asian markets have opened generally in the positive today with the Nikkei trading up 0.3% and the Hang Seng rising by 1.3%.
  • In local markets the Tadawul gave up 0.4% overnight while the DFM gained about 0.3%. The ADX index in Abu Dhabi settled weaker by 0.3%.

Commodities

  • Oil prices pushed higher overnight with Brent futures closing at USD 82.52/b, up 1.3%, while WTI added 1.4% to close at USD 78.26/b. Product markets also pushed higher along with a big gain—5.4%—in Henry Hub futures. Metals prices were generally higher with gold up 0.4% helping to lift the rest of the precious metals complex. Both copper and aluminium traded higher in the LME space along with iron ore.
  • OPEC pushed back against what it called an “overblown negative sentiment” in the oil market in its November monthly report. The oil producers’ alliance blamed “speculators” for the drop in oil prices in the last few weeks. For their supply/demand forecasts, OPEC upgraded their 2023 demand growth estimate marginally higher to 2.44m b/d and kept their 2024 demand growth expectation at 2.25m b/d. OPEC estimates supply growth of almost 1.4m b/d next year, largely down to higher production in the Americas.

Written By

Edward Bell Head of Market Economics


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