CPI inflation in India slowed to 2.8% y/y in May, down from 3.2% the previous month and beating the predicted 3.0% rise. This marked the seventh month in a row of lower inflation and the slowest pace of annual price growth since February 2019, with a notably modest rise (1.0% y/y) in food prices driving much of the slowdown. The lower-than-expected inflation print raises the chances of another rate cut from the RBI at its August meeting following the surprise 50bps cut implemented last week when a quarter-point cut had been anticipated.
Industrial production in Turkey was up 3.3% y/y in April, compared with a 2.5% rise the previous month. However, production was 3.1% lower than seen in March. The monthly drop was driven by a 2.5% fall in mining and quarrying and a 3.4% decline in manufacturing, while electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning rose 0.2%. All constituents were up on the previous year and the annual rise was the strongest since December last year.
Following on from the softer CPI print earlier in the week, US PPI inflation was also a little weaker than predicted at 0.1% m/m compared to the predicted 0.2% rise. Core PPI was also up 0.1% on the month. Just like the CPI print there was no discernible pass-through from tariffs manifesting in the data. Meanwhile, the weekly initial jobless claims was at 247,000 last week, down from 248,000 the week before. Recurring claims in the week prior rose to the highest level since late 2021 at 1.96mn.
UK GDP contracted 0.3% m/m in May, worse than the predicted 0.1% contraction and compared with growth of 0.2% the previous month. The government attributed the disappointing print to the effects of US tariff uncertainty.
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18:00 US University of Michigan sentiment index, June. Forecast: 53.6
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