Industrial production moves higher in Turkey

Industrial production in Turkey increased by 1.6% m/m in September, reversing the prior month’s decline of the same amount. On an annual basis industrial output was lower by 2.4% y/y. Manufacturing was lower by 2.5% y/y in September, a smaller decline than recorded a month earlier, while mining and quarrying was lower by slightly more than 5%.

In Saudi Arabia industrial production dropped y/y in September, down 0.3% from a year earlier. Both manufacturing and utilities were lower y/y while mining and quarrying output was flat on an annual basis.

DEWA reported a 4.2% increase in customer accounts in the first nine months of 2024 compared with the same period a year earlier. Electricity demand was higher by 3.4% y/y in the first nine months on a peak demand basis while generation was almost 4% higher. According to DEWA’s Q3 statement, 17% of its installed capacity (2.86 GW) was provided by renewable energy.

Today’s Economic Data and Events

• 11:00 GE CPI y/y Oct (f): forecast 2%
• 11:00 TU current account balance Sep: forecast 2.8bn
• 11:00 UK ILO unemployment rate 3mths Sep: forecast 4.1%
• 14:00 GE ZEW survey expectations Nov: forecast 13.2
• 14:30 IN CPI y/y Oct: forecast 5.9%
• 14:30 IN industrial production Sep: forecast 5.9%
• 20:00 US NY Fed 1-yr inflation expectations Oct

Fixed Income

• US Treasury markets were closed yesterday for a federal holiday in the US. This morning yields have opened marginally higher with the 2yr UST yield up 2bps and the 10yr up by the same amount. The 2s10s curve has stayed relatively steady at about 5bps.
• Bond markets in Europe were broadly stronger overnight with gains in bunds despite the political uncertainty in Germany.

FX

• The US dollar continued to gain at the start of the week with the DXY index up by 0.5%. EURUSD fell by almost 0.6% to 1.0655 while GBPUSD was lower by 0.4% to settle at 1.2868. USDJPY also moved against the yen with the pair rising by 0.7% to 153.72.
• Commodity currencies also dropped though the losses were more manageable. USDCAD nudged higher by 0.09% to 1.3925 while AUDUSD fell by 0.1% to 0.6575.
• The standout mover overnight was Bitcoin which rose more than 10% to a new high of USD 88,000. The cryptocurrency is trending moderately higher in early trade today.

Equities

• US equity markets had a positive start to the week though the moves were relatively contained. The S&P 500 added 0.1% while the NASDAQ was up by less than that. The standout was the Dow with a 0.7% gain. European markets were more resolutely positive with a 1.1% gain in the EuroStoxx index while the FTSE rallied 0.7%.
• Regional markets had a mixed day. The DFM gained 0.3% while the ADX ticked lower and the Tadawul was marginally higher.

Commodities

• Oil prices slumped at the start of the week with Brent futures down 2.8% at USD 71.83/b and WTI off by more than 3.3% to USD 68.04/b. Resurgent anxieties over demand are weighing on oil ahead of the publication of the latest monthly reports from OPEC and the IEA.
• Gold prices dropped 2.5% overnight to USD 2,619/troy oz along with declines across the rest of the precious metals complex. Industrial metals also had a weak session with iron ore, copper and aluminium all falling.