Dubai GDP grew 4.7% y/y in Q2

Dubai real GDP grew 4.7% y/y in Q2 2025, following 4.0% y/y growth in Q1. Sources of second quarter growth appear broad-based. The construction sector grew 14.9% y/y in Q2 and 8.5% in the first half of the year, likely supported by both private and public spending on capex projects. The finance and insurance sector grew 7.7% y/y, the real estate sector expanded 6.4% y/y and the accommodation and food services sector grew 6.9% y/y, boosted by strong tourism to the Emirate. The fastest pace of growth was seen in the human health and social work sector, which rose 20% y/y.

Reports suggest that the US government shutdown could be nearing its conclusion, after a group of Senate Democrats agreed to fully funding the Departments of Agriculture and Veteran Affairs, as well as Congress itself. In addition, some other departments and agencies would be funded until the end of January, while furloughed government employees would be reinstated and receive backpay.

The provisional print of the University of Michigan consumer confidence survey declined in November, falling to a value of 50.3 from 53.6. The print was significantly lower than consensus expectations, driven by concerns about the US government shutdown. The current conditions component fell sharply, dropping to a value of 52.3 from 58.6 in October. The expected conditions measure also saw a fall, declining to 49.0 from 50.3. Respondents also reported expecting a rise in unemployment over the course of the next year. One-year ahead inflation expectations rose marginally, increasing to 4.7% from 4.6% in the October survey, while long-term inflation expectations fell to 3.6% in November from 3.7% the month before.

Chinese consumer price inflation rose 0.2% y/y in October, beating consensus expectations for a 0.1% decline. The pace of price increases was supported by holiday spending, which resulted in smaller drops in food prices and higher non-food and services costs. Producer price inflation, in contrast, remained in deflationary territory with a print of -2.1% y/y from -2.3% in September.

Today’s Economic Data and Events

• 11:00 TU Industrial production (Sept)

Fixed Income

• Moves in US treasuries were muted on Friday, with the 2yr yield remaining largely unchanged at 3.5616%, while the 10yr yield rose 1bps to 4.0966%. On a week-on-week bases yields were also broadly stable.
• European bond yields rose on Friday. The 10yr Gilt rose 3.5bps to 4.464%, while the 10yr Bund gained 1.6bps to 2.664%.

FX

• The US dollar fell further on Friday, with the spot index falling 0.13%. EURUSD rose 0.16% to 1.1566 while GBPUSD gained 0.2% to 1.3216. USDJPY gained 0.24% to 153.41.
• In emerging markets, USDTRY rose 0.24% to 42.213 while USDINR rose 0.05% to 88.665.

Equities

• US equity markets were mixed at the end of Friday’s session, with the Dow Jones and the S&P 500 seeing 0.16% and 0.13% gains, respectively. The NASDAQ in contrast fell 0.2%. On a week-on-week basis US equity markets remained lower, with the Dow Jones down 1.2%, the S&P 500 1.6% weaker and the NASDAQ over 3% lower.
• In the UAE, the DFM rose 0.05% and the ADX gained 0.74%.

Commodities

• Oil prices rose on Friday, with Brent futures 0.4% higher at USD 63.63/b and WTI up 0.5% at USD 59.75/b. Despite the increase on the day, prices remained lower on a weekly basis.
• Precious metals prices rose at the end of the week, with gold and silver both gaining 0.6% to reach USD 4001.26/troy oz and USD 48.32/troy oz, respectively.