KHDA data shows private school enrolments up 6% in 2024/25

The latest data from the KHDA show that private school enrolments in Dubai rose by 6% y/y in the academic year 2024/25, to 387,441 students. This marked a slowdown from the 12% growth registered in the previous academic year but is still indicative of a rapidly expanding population.

CPI inflation in Egypt slowed to 24.1% y/y in December, down from 25.5% the previous month, while m/m inflation was 0.2%, down from 0.5% in November. This marked the slowest pace of annual price growth in two years, with food and beverages inflation at just 20.3% y/y, the lowest reading since March 2022, while most other components of the basket also registered a slowdown. The annual measure will likely slow more rapidly in the coming months as FX-driven inflation passes through the base. On the monthly measure the December print was the lowest since May, with subsidy adjustments having slowed through the end of the year.

Industrial production in Saudi Arabia slowed to 3.4% y/y in November, down from 5.0% previously. Mining and quarrying, which is mostly comprised of the oil sector, was up 1.2% while manufacturing rose 7.2%.

German industrial production data surprised to the upside for November, with a m/m expansion of 1.5%, well above the predicted 0.5% growth and compared with a 0.4% decline in October. On an annual basis, production was 2.8% lower than in November 2023. The data point is positive but follows other more negative indicators out of Germany over the past week and the likelihood remains that Germany saw a second annual contraction in row last year, and growth is expected to remain lacklustre in 2025. Elsewhere, Eurozone retail sales grew 0.1% m/m in November, up from -0.3% in October but missing the predicted 0.3% growth. On an annual basis, growth was 1.2%, down from 2.1% previously.

Today’s Economic Data and Events

14:30 India industrial production, % y/y, November. Forecast: 4.0%

17:30 US change in nonfarm payrolls, December. Forecast: 165,000

19:00 US University of Michigan sentiment index, January. Forecast: 74.0

Fixed Income

• Some of the pressure on UK gilts eased yesterday through the course of the session, and at the close yields on the 10yr were up just 2bps at 4.811% after breaching the 4.900% mark over the previous 24 hours.
• In the US treasury markets were closed in the afternoon for ex-president Jimmy Carter’s memorial. As such movement was fairly limited, especially ahead of today’s NFP report. Yields on the 2yr fell 2bps to 4.2640% while the 10yr closed almost unchanged at 4.6893%.
• Several Fed officials commented yesterday, giving a fairly hawkish view on the trajectory for rates. Kansas City Fed president Jeff Schmid and Boston Fed president Susan Collins, both FOMC voting members this year, were among those indicating that an extended hold might be appropriate.

FX

• The US dollar continued to climb yesterday with the dollar index up for the third day running with a gain of 0.1% against its basket of peer currencies.
• Gains were fairly broad based although the JPY strengthened marginally, adding 0.1% to 158.14 as the BoJ said that there had been progress in wage gains.
• GBP remained weak as US assets come under pressure and it was the notable loser of the day, closing down 0.4% to 1.2308. It hit an intraday low of 1.2239, the lowest level since November 2023. EUR closed 0.2% lower at 1.0300.

Equities

• While the DAX fell 0.1% yesterday, other European indices were more positive with the CAC up 0.5% and the FTSE 100 adding 0.8%.
• Locally, the DFM closed up 0.4% while the ADX closed almost flat. Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul closed up 0.1%.
• US equity markets were closed yesterday for former president Jimmy Carter’s memorial.

Commodities

• Brent futures closed up 1.0% yesterday at USD 76.9/b, while WTI added 0.8% to USD 73.9/b. Both benchmarks are up in early trading today, putting them on track for a third consecutive weekly gain.