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Rates Forecasts

 

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Government bonds 28-Nov-22 Dec-22 Mar-23 Jun-23 Sep-23 Dec-23 Mar-24 Jun-24
USD
2yr yield: % 4.46 4.50 4.75 5.00 4.75 4.50 4.25 4.00
10yr yield: % 3.68 3.75 4.00 4.30 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.45
EUR (bunds)
2yr yield: % 2.20 2.00 2.40 2.50 2.50 2.40 2.25 1.90
10yr yield: % 2.01 2.10 2.20 2.20 2.30 2.20 2.10 2.00
GBP
2yr yield: % 3.29 3.40 3.80 4.35 4.25 4.00 3.75 3.50
10yr yield: % 3.12 3.20 3.50 3.80 4.00 3.90 3.80 3.75
JPY
2yr yield: % -0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
10yr yield: % 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.30 0.30 0.50 0.50 0.50

Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research.

Interbank market 28-Nov-22 Dec-22 Mar-23 Jun-23 Sep-23 Dec-23 Mar-24 Jun-24
SOFR 3.79 4.23 4.48 4.48 4.23 3.98 3.73 3.48
SOFR 3M 4.40 4.40 4.65 4.65 4.40 4.30 4.05 3.80
AED 3M EIBOR 4.43 4.35 4.45 4.45 4.25 4.25 4.00 4.00

Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research.

Policy rates 28-Nov-22 Dec-22 Mar-23 Jun-23 Sep-23 Dec-23 Mar-24 Jun-24
Fed Funds target rate (upper bound) 4.00 4.50 4.75 4.75 4.50 4.25 4.00 3.75
ECB (Deposit Rate) 1.50 2.25 2.75 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00
BoE (Bank Rate) 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 4.50 4.25 4.00 3.75
BoJ (Policy Balance Rate) -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10
SNB (Policy Rate) 0.50 0.75 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25
RBA (Cash Target Rate) 2.85 3.10 3.60 3.60 3.60 3.60 3.60 3.60
RBI (Repo Rate) 5.90 6.40 6.65 6.65 6.90 6.90 6.90 6.90
SCB (Reverse Repo) 4.00 4.50 4.75 4.75 4.50 4.25 4.00 3.75
CBUAE (Base Rate) 3.90 4.40 4.65 4.65 4.40 4.15 3.90 3.65
CBK (O/N Discount Rate) 3.00 3.75 4.00 4.00 3.75 3.50 3.25 3.00
CBB (O/N Deposit Rate) 4.50 5.00 5.25 5.25 5.00 4.75 4.50 4.25
CBO (O/N Repo Rate) 3.00 5.00 5.25 5.25 5.00 4.75 4.50 4.25
CBE (O/N Deposit Rate) 13.25 14.25 14.75 14.75 14.75 14.75 14.25 13.75

Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research.