Emirates NBD Research
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Rates Forecasts
| Government bonds | 26-Sep-22 | Sep-22 | Dec-22 | Mar-23 | Jun-23 | Sep-23 | Dec-23 | Mar-24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | ||||||||
| 2yr yield: % | 4.31 | 4.30 | 4.50 | 4.75 | 5.00 | 4.75 | 4.50 | 4.25 |
| 10yr yield: % | 3.78 | 3.70 | 3.75 | 4.00 | 4.30 | 4.50 | 4.50 | 4.50 |
| EUR (bunds) | ||||||||
| 2yr yield: % | 1.97 | 1.90 | 2.00 | 2.40 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.40 | 2.25 |
| 10yr yield: % | 2.09 | 2.00 | 2.10 | 2.20 | 2.20 | 2.30 | 2.20 | 2.10 |
| GBP | ||||||||
| 2yr yield: % | 4.50 | 3.95 | 4.10 | 4.20 | 4.35 | 4.25 | 4.00 | 3.75 |
| 10yr yield: % | 4.14 | 3.80 | 3.90 | 4.00 | 4.15 | 4.00 | 3.90 | 3.80 |
| JPY | ||||||||
| 2yr yield: % | -0.06 | -0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 10yr yield: % | 0.24 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.30 | 0.30 | 0.50 | 0.50 |
Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research.
| Interbank market | 26-Sep-22 | Sep-22 | Dec-22 | Mar-23 | Jun-23 | Sep-23 | Dec-23 | Mar-24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOFR | 2.99 | 3.00 | 4.25 | 4.50 | 4.50 | 4.25 | 4.00 | 3.75 |
| SOFR 3M | 3.54 | 3.50 | 4.40 | 4.65 | 4.65 | 4.40 | 4.30 | 4.05 |
| AED 3M EIBOR | 3.41 | 3.15 | 4.35 | 4.45 | 4.45 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 4.00 |
Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research.
| Policy rates | 26-Sep-22 | Sep-22 | Dec-22 | Mar-23 | Jun-23 | Sep-23 | Dec-23 | Mar-24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Funds target rate (upper bound) | 3.25 | 3.25 | 4.50 | 4.75 | 4.75 | 4.50 | 4.25 | 4.00 |
| ECB (Deposit Rate) | 0.75 | 0.75 | 2.00 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.50 |
| BoE (Bank Rate) | 2.25 | 2.25 | 3.50 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| BoJ (Policy Balance Rate) | -0.10 | -0.10 | -0.10 | -0.10 | -0.10 | -0.10 | -0.10 | -0.10 |
| SNB (Policy Rate) | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 1.00 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 |
| RBA (Cash Target Rate) | 2.35 | 2.35 | 3.60 | 4.10 | 4.10 | 4.10 | 4.10 | 4.10 |
| RBI (Repo Rate) | 5.40 | 5.90 | 6.40 | 6.65 | 6.65 | 6.90 | 6.90 | 6.90 |
| SCB (Reverse Repo) | 3.25 | 3.25 | 4.50 | 4.75 | 4.75 | 4.50 | 4.25 | 4.00 |
| CBUAE (Base Rate) | 3.15 | 3.15 | 4.40 | 4.65 | 4.65 | 4.40 | 4.15 | 3.90 |
| CBK (O/N Discount Rate) | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.75 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 3.75 | 3.50 | 3.25 |
| CBB (O/N Deposit Rate) | 3.75 | 3.75 | 5.00 | 5.25 | 5.25 | 5.00 | 4.75 | 4.50 |
| CBO (O/N Repo Rate) | 3.00 | 3.00 | 4.25 | 4.50 | 4.50 | 4.25 | 4.00 | 3.75 |
| CBE (O/N Deposit Rate) | 11.25 | 11.25 | 12.25 | 12.50 | 12.50 | 12.50 | 12.75 | 12.75 |
Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research.