Emirates NBD Research
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Rates Forecasts
| Government bonds | 27-Jan-22 | Mar-23 | Jun-23 | Sep-23 | Dec-23 | Mar-24 | Jun-24 | Sep-24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | ||||||||
| 2yr yield: % | 4.19 | 4.30 | 4.40 | 4.00 | 3.85 | 3.50 | 3.30 | 3.00 |
| 10yr yield: % | 3.53 | 3.60 | 3.85 | 3.65 | 3.50 | 3.30 | 3.30 | 3.25 |
| EUR (bunds) | ||||||||
| 2yr yield: % | 2.57 | 2.60 | 2.75 | 2.25 | 2.00 | 1.75 | 1.50 | 1.25 |
| 10yr yield: % | 2.21 | 2.30 | 2.50 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 1.80 | 1.75 | 1.50 |
| GBP | ||||||||
| 2yr yield: % | 3.44 | 3.60 | 3.50 | 3.25 | 3.00 | 2.75 | 2.50 | 2.50 |
| 10yr yield: % | 3.31 | 3.40 | 3.40 | 3.30 | 3.25 | 3.10 | 3.00 | 2.75 |
| JPY | ||||||||
| 2yr yield: % | -0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 10yr yield: % | 0.47 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.60 |
Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research.
| Interbank market | 27-Jan-22 | Mar-23 | Jun-23 | Sep-23 | Dec-23 | Mar-24 | Jun-24 | Sep-24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOFR | 4.80 | 5.27 | 5.27 | 5.02 | 4.77 | 4.52 | 4.27 | 4.27 |
| SOFR 3M | 4.31 | 4.80 | 4.80 | 4.55 | 4.30 | 4.05 | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| AED 3M EIBOR | 4.67 | 5.09 | 5.09 | 4.84 | 4.30 | 4.05 | 3.80 | 3.80 |
Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research.
| Policy rates | 27-Jan-22 | Mar-23 | Jun-23 | Sep-23 | Dec-23 | Mar-24 | Jun-24 | Sep-24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Funds target rate (upper bound) | 4.50 | 5.00 | 5.00 | 4.75 | 4.50 | 4.25 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| ECB (Deposit Rate) | 2.00 | 3.00 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.25 | 3.00 | 2.75 | 2.50 |
| BoE (Bank Rate) | 3.50 | 4.25 | 4.50 | 4.50 | 4.25 | 4.00 | 3.75 | 3.50 |
| BoJ (Policy Balance Rate) | -0.10 | -0.10 | -0.10 | -0.10 | -0.10 | -0.10 | -0.10 | -0.10 |
| SNB (Policy Rate) | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.25 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| RBA (Cash Target Rate) | 3.10 | 3.60 | 3.85 | 3.85 | 3.85 | 3.85 | 3.85 | 3.85 |
| RBI (Repo Rate) | 6.25 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 7.00 | 7.00 | 7.00 | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| SCB (Reverse Repo) | 4.50 | 5.00 | 5.00 | 4.75 | 4.50 | 4.25 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| CBUAE (Base Rate) | 4.40 | 4.90 | 4.90 | 4.65 | 4.40 | 4.15 | 3.90 | 3.90 |
| CBK (O/N Discount Rate) | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 3.75 | 3.50 | 3.25 | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| CBB (O/N Deposit Rate) | 5.00 | 5.50 | 5.50 | 5.25 | 5.00 | 4.75 | 4.50 | 4.50 |
| CBO (O/N Repo Rate) | 3.00 | 5.50 | 5.50 | 5.25 | 5.00 | 4.75 | 4.50 | 4.50 |
| CBE (O/N Deposit Rate) | 16.25 | 19.25 | 19.75 | 19.75 | 19.75 | 19.25 | 18.75 | 18.75 |
Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research.