Emirates NBD Research
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Rates Forecasts
| Government bonds | 30-May-23 | Jun-23 | Sep-23 | Dec-23 | Mar-24 | Jun-24 | Sep-24 | Dec-24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | ||||||||
| 2yr yield: % | 4.57 | 4.50 | 4.30 | 4.00 | 3.50 | 3.30 | 3.00 | 2.85 |
| 10yr yield: % | 3.76 | 3.85 | 3.65 | 3.50 | 3.30 | 3.30 | 3.25 | 3.00 |
| EUR (bunds) | ||||||||
| 2yr yield: % | 2.87 | 2.75 | 2.25 | 2.00 | 1.75 | 1.50 | 1.25 | 1.25 |
| 10yr yield: % | 2.43 | 2.50 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 1.80 | 1.75 | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| GBP | ||||||||
| 2yr yield: % | 4.48 | 4.50 | 4.50 | 4.25 | 4.00 | 3.75 | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| 10yr yield: % | 4.33 | 4.30 | 4.40 | 4.10 | 3.75 | 3.50 | 3.25 | 3.25 |
| JPY | ||||||||
| 2yr yield: % | -0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 10yr yield: % | 0.43 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.75 |
Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research.
| Interbank market | 30-May-23 | Jun-23 | Sep-23 | Dec-23 | Mar-24 | Jun-24 | Sep-24 | Dec-24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOFR | 5.06 | 5.12 | 5.12 | 5.12 | 4.87 | 4.62 | 4.62 | 4.37 |
| SOFR 3M | 5.26 | 5.26 | 5.26 | 5.26 | 5.01 | 4.76 | 4.76 | 4.51 |
| AED 3M EIBOR | 5.24 | 5.30 | 5.30 | 5.30 | 5.05 | 4.80 | 4.80 | 4.55 |
Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research.
| Policy rates | 30-May-23 | Jun-23 | Sep-23 | Dec-23 | Mar-24 | Jun-24 | Sep-24 | Dec-24 | Mar-25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Funds target rate (upper bound) | 5.25 | 5.25 | 5.25 | 5.25 | 5.00 | 4.75 | 4.75 | 4.50 | 4.25 |
| ECB (Deposit Rate) | 3.25 | 3.50 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.50 | 3.25 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| BoE (Bank Rate) | 4.50 | 4.75 | 5.25 | 5.25 | 5.00 | 4.75 | 4.50 | 4.25 | 5.00 |
| BoJ (Policy Balance Rate) | -0.10 | -0.10 | -0.10 | -0.10 | -0.10 | -0.10 | -0.10 | -0.10 | -0.10 |
| SNB (Policy Rate) | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 0.00 |
| RBA (Cash Target Rate) | 3.85 | 3.85 | 3.85 | 3.85 | 3.85 | 3.85 | 3.85 | 3.85 | 3.85 |
| RBI (Repo Rate) | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.75 |
| SCB (Reverse Repo) | 5.00 | 5.25 | 5.25 | 5.25 | 5.00 | 4.75 | 4.75 | 4.50 | 4.25 |
| CBUAE (Base Rate) | 5.15 | 5.15 | 5.15 | 5.15 | 4.90 | 4.65 | 4.65 | 4.40 | 4.15 |
| CBK (Discount Rate) | 4.00 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 4.00 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.50 | 3.25 |
| CBB (O/N Deposit Rate) | 5.75 | 5.75 | 5.75 | 5.75 | 5.50 | 5.25 | 5.25 | 5.00 | 4.75 |
| CBO (O/N Repo Rate) | 3.00 | 5.75 | 5.75 | 5.75 | 5.50 | 5.25 | 5.25 | 5.00 | 4.75 |
| CBE (O/N Deposit Rate) | 18.25 | 19.25 | 19.25 | 19.25 | 18.25 | 16.75 | 15.75 | 14.50 | 14.00 |
Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research.