Emirates NBD Research
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Rates Forecasts
| Government bonds | 30-May-22 | Jun-22 | Sep-22 | Dec-22 | Mar-23 | Jun-23 | Sep-23 | Dec-23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | ||||||||
| 2yr yield: % | 2.48 | 2.65 | 2.85 | 3.10 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 2.85 | 2.65 |
| 10yr yield: % | 2.74 | 2.95 | 3.10 | 3.00 | 2.90 | 2.90 | 2.90 | 2.85 |
| EUR (bunds) | ||||||||
| 2yr yield: % | 0.34 | 0.25 | 0.30 | 0.40 | 0.50 | 0.60 | 0.75 | 0.85 |
| 10yr yield: % | 0.96 | 0.80 | 1.00 | 1.20 | 1.40 | 1.50 | 1.75 | 1.85 |
| GBP | ||||||||
| 2yr yield: % | 1.42 | 1.60 | 1.50 | 1.75 | 7.90 | 2.00 | 2.25 | 2.00 |
| 10yr yield: % | 1.80 | 1.85 | 2.00 | 2.25 | 2.40 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.25 |
| JPY | ||||||||
| 2yr yield: % | -0.07 | -0.05 | -0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 10yr yield: % | 0.23 | 0.30 | 0.30 | 0.40 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.60 | 0.60 |
Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research.
| Interbank market | 30-May-22 | Jun-22 | Sep-22 | Dec-22 | Mar-23 | Jun-23 | Sep-23 | Dec-23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD 3M LIBOR | 1.60 | 1.96 | 2.71 | 3.21 | 3.46 | 3.71 | 4.21 | 4.21 |
| SOFR | 0.78 | 0.79 | 1.17 | 1.42 | 1.54 | 1.67 | 1.92 | 1.92 |
| AED 3M EIBOR | 1.63 | 2.11 | 2.86 | 3.36 | 3.61 | 3.86 | 4.36 | 4.36 |
Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research.
| Policy rates | 30-May-22 | Jun-22 | Sep-22 | Dec-22 | Mar-23 | Jun-23 | Sep-23 | Dec-23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Funds target rate (upper bound) | 1.00 | 1.50 | 2.25 | 2.75 | 3.00 | 3.25 | 3.75 | 3.75 |
| ECB (Deposit Rate) | -0.50 | -0.50 | 0.00 | 0.25 | 0.50 | 0.75 | 1.00 | 1.25 |
| BoE (Bank Rate) | 1.00 | 1.25 | 1.75 | 2.00 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 |
| BoJ (Policy Balance Rate) | -0.10 | -0.10 | -0.10 | -0.10 | -0.10 | -0.10 | -0.10 | -0.10 |
| SNB (Policy Rate) | -0.75 | -0.75 | -0.75 | -0.75 | -0.75 | -0.75 | -0.75 | -0.75 |
| RBA (Cash Target Rate) | 0.35 | 0.60 | 1.35 | 2.10 | 2.35 | 2,60 | 2.85 | 3.10 |
| RBI (Repo Rate) | 4.40 | 4.65 | 4.90 | 5.15 | 5.40 | 5.40 | 5.65 | 5.65 |
| SCB (Reverse Repo) | 1.25 | 1.75 | 2.50 | 2.75 | 3.25 | 3.50 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| CBUAE (Base Rate) | 0.90 | 1.40 | 2.15 | 2.65 | 2.90 | 2.90 | 3.65 | 3.65 |
| CBK (O/N Repo Rate) | 2.00 | 2.75 | 3.50 | 4.00 | 4.25 | 4.50 | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| CBB (O/N Deposit Rate) | 1.50 | 2.00 | 2.75 | 3.25 | 3.50 | 3.75 | 4.25 | 4.25 |
| CBO (O/N Repo Rate) | 1.50 | 1.50 | 2.25 | 2.75 | 3.00 | 3.25 | 3.75 | 3.75 |
| CBE (O/N Deposit Rate) | 11.25 | 12.25 | 12.75 | 12.75 | 13.00 | 13.25 | 13.25 | 13.25 |
Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research.