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MENA Importers Forecasts

 

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Egypt* 2019 2020 2021f 2022f 2023f
Nominal GDP $bn 291.8 359.1 403.3 380.0 352.1
Real GDP % 5.6 3.6 3.3 6.2 4.1
Current A/C % GDP -3.7 -3.2 -5.0 -3.9 -3.6
Budget Balance % GDP -8.6 -8.0 -7.4 -7.1 -6.9
CPI % 9.4 5.1 5.2 12.6 9.0
Jordan 2019 2020 2021f 2022f 2023f
Nominal GDP $bn 44.5 43.7 46.5 49.3 52.1
Real GDP % 2.0 -1.6 2.2 2.0 2.5
Current A/C % GDP -1.7 -5.7 -8.6 -7.3 -6.4
Budget Balance % GDP -3.7 -7.7 -6.1 -6.7 -5.3
CPI % 0.3 0.3 1.4 4.4 2.8
Lebanon 2019 2020 2021f 2022f 2023f
Nominal GDP $bn 53.6 63.6 108.5 193.0 21.6
Real GDP % -7.2 -25.0 -9.8 -5.5 2.3
Current A/C % GDP -21.0 -4.7 -2.7 -1.4 -9.1
Budget Balance % GDP -10.9 -4.3 1.3 1.5 0.8
CPI % 10.1 84.3 151.0 182.0 50.0
Morocco 2019 2020 2021f 2022f 2023f
Nominal GDP $bn 128.9 121.4 143.3 145.1 145.5
Real GDP % 2.9 -7.2 7.9 1.3 3.7
Current A/C % GDP -3.4 -1.2 -2.3 -4.8 -4.7
Budget Balance % GDP -3.8 -7.1 -5.0 -6.1 -5.6
CPI % 0.3 0.7 1.4 6.0 4.0
Tunisia 2019 2020 2021f 2022f 2023f
Nominal GDP $bn 40.5 39.3 40.8 38.3 36.8
Real GDP % 1.0 -8.6 3.4 2.2 2.8
Current A/C % GDP -8.7 -6.5 -7.0 -11.8 -10.7
Budget Balance % GDP -3.6 -10.2 -8.6 -8.8 -9.2
CPI % 6.7 5.6 5.7 8.0 6.6
Oil Importers (GDP weighted avg) 2019 2020 2021f 2022f 2023f
Nominal GDP $bn 193.6 241.1 267.7 256.4 246.1
Real GDP % 3.1 -2.5 2.2 2.1 3.7
Current A/C % GDP -5.5 -3.3 -4.4 -4.1 -4.7
Budget Balance % GDP -7.0 -7.6 -5.6 -4.9 -6.3
CPI % 6.4 12.0 25.6 51.3 8.6

Source: Haver Analytics, National sources, Emirates NBD Research

* Egypt data refers to fiscal year (July-June)