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Khatija Haque - Head of Research & Chief Economist
Published Date: 21 February 2022
Geopolitical tension in Eurasia has ruffled financial markets in recent weeks and contributed to the almost 20 per cent increase in oil prices since the start of 2022.
In addition, oil markets are expected to remain relatively tight in the first quarter of this year, as supply is only gradually increasing while demand growth remains robust. However, over the rest of 2022, oil demand growth is set to slow as overall demand returns to pre-pandemic levels. At the same time production is heading steadily higher from both Opec+ and non-Opec+ producers such as the US, Canada and Brazil.
Emirates NBD now expects Brent oil to average closer to $80 a barrel in 2022, up from our previous $70 forecast at the start of the year. We also now expect GCC countries to increase production by more than previously expected this year.