North Africa Report

Daniel Richards - MENA Economist
Published Date: 28 February 2019

 

  • Algeria:  Algeria’s economic and political landscape in 2019 will be dominated by the upcoming presidential elections. We expect that power will be retained by the ruling FLN/RND/TAJ/MPA coalition under a fifth term for President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, meaning policy continuity is likely.
  • Egypt:  We have made moderate downward revisions to our Egyptian real GDP growth forecasts since last quarter; we now project an expansion of 5.3% in the current fiscal year (ending June 2019), rising to 5.9% in 2019/20. This compares to our previous expectation of 5.5% and 6.1% respectively, and would see flat growth this year following the 5.3% growth recorded in 2017/18.
  • Morocco:  We hold to our below-consensus Moroccan real GDP growth forecast of 2.7% in 2019, from 3.0% in 2018. We expect a mild moderation this year as the agricultural sector will likely post weaker growth.
  • Tunisia:  We forecast a modest acceleration in real GDP growth in Tunisia in 2019, to 2.7% from an estimated 2.5% in 2018. In light of the wage deal struck with the UGTT in January, we have made a modest downward adjustment to our fiscal balance forecast for Tunisia, now projecting a shortfall equivalent to 4.6% of GDP, from a previous outlook of 4.3%

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