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A round-up of our key research insights and forecasts in February 2021
MONTHLY INSIGHTS, MENA
Chinese growth momentum slowed in February with both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs easing from January.
DAILY OUTLOOK, DAILY
Indian real GDP growth missed expectations in Q3 FY 21, and the outlook for the current quarter is even weaker. Nevertheless, we anticipate a substantial rebound in the next fiscal year.
Following upside surprises in Q4 real GDP figures, Q1 2021 is likely to be fairly weak. Looking ahead, the speed of vaccinations will be a key determinant of the pace of growth in DMs
ECONOMICS, GLOBAL MACRO
EM currencies have been resilient so far in face of rising UST yields
MARKETS, EMERGING MARKETS
The improving economy, more than anticipated stimulus, is sending yields upward.
MARKETS, FIXED INCOME
The bloc of exporters could keep the oil market running hot but risks creating better conditions for alternative producers.
After a shallower-than-expected contraction in 2020, the Israeli economy is set to return to growth in 2021, boosted by an effective vaccination programme.
Oil price will remain below GCC budget break evens in 2021 and sovereigns will need to issue more debt to finance budget shortfalls.
ECONOMICS, GCC MACRO
Setting the background of where the UAE stands in the regional fintech space.
ECONOMICS, SECTOR ECONOMICS
The Dubai PMI reading slipped to 50.6 in January from 51.0 in December on the back of slower growth in business activity and new work.
A sustained rally in risk markets could take the fizz out of the dollar in the near term.
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