Emirates NBD Research
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Rates Forecasts
| Government bonds | 27-Apr-22 | Jun-22 | Sep-22 | Dec-22 | Mar-23 | Jun-23 | Sep-23 | Dec-23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | ||||||||
| 2yr yield: % | 2.58 | 2.65 | 2.85 | 2.90 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 2.85 | 2.75 |
| 10yr yield: % | 2.76 | 2.95 | 3.15 | 3.25 | 3.40 | 3.50 | 3.40 | 3.25 |
| EUR (bunds) | ||||||||
| 2yr yield: % | 0.13 | 0.25 | 0.30 | 0.40 | 0.50 | 0.60 | 0.75 | 0.85 |
| 10yr yield: % | 0.80 | 0.80 | 1.00 | 1.20 | 1.40 | 1.50 | 1.75 | 1.85 |
| GBP | ||||||||
| 2yr yield: % | 1.49 | 1.60 | 1.50 | 1.75 | 7.90 | 2.00 | 2.25 | 2.00 |
| 10yr yield: % | 1.80 | 1.85 | 2.00 | 2.25 | 2.40 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.25 |
| JPY | ||||||||
| 2yr yield: % | -0.06 | -0.05 | -0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 10yr yield: % | 0.24 | 0.30 | 0.30 | 0.40 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.60 | 0.60 |
Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research.
| Interbank market | 27-Apr-22 | Jun-22 | Sep-22 | Dec-22 | Mar-23 | Jun-23 | Sep-23 | Dec-23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD 3M LIBOR | 1.24 | 1.96 | 2.46 | 1.96 | 3.21 | 3.46 | 3.96 | 3.96 |
| SOFR | 0.27 | 0.62 | 0.79 | 0.96 | 1.04 | 1.12 | 1.29 | 1.29 |
| AED 3M EIBOR | 1.32 | 2.11 | 2.61 | 3.11 | 3.36 | 3.31 | 4.11 | 4.11 |
Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research.
| Policy rates | 27-Apr-22 | Jun-22 | Sep-22 | Dec-22 | Mar-23 | Jun-23 | Sep-23 | Dec-23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Funds target rate (upper bound) | 0.50 | 1.50 | 2.00 | 2.50 | 2.75 | 3.00 | 3.50 | 3.50 |
| ECB (Deposit Rate) | -0.50 | -0.50 | 0.00 | 0.25 | 0.50 | 0.75 | 1.00 | 1.25 |
| BoE (Bank Rate) | 0.75 | 1.25 | 1.75 | 2.00 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 |
| BoJ (Policy Balance Rate) | -0.10 | -0.10 | -0.10 | -0.10 | -0.10 | -0.10 | -0.10 | -0.10 |
| SNB (Policy Rate) | -0.75 | -0.75 | -0.75 | -0.75 | -0.75 | -0.75 | -0.75 | -0.75 |
| RBA (Cash Target Rate) | 0.10 | 0.35 | 1.10 | 1.85 | 2.10 | 2.35 | 2.60 | 2.85 |
| RBI (Repo Rate) | 4.00 | 4.25 | 4.50 | 4.75 | 5.00 | 5.00 | 5.25 | 5.25 |
| SCB (Reverse Repo) | 0.75 | 1.75 | 2.25 | 2.75 | 3.00 | 3.25 | 3.75 | 3.75 |
| CBUAE (Base Rate) | 0.40 | 1.40 | 1.90 | 2.40 | 2.65 | 2.90 | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| CBK (O/N Repo Rate) | 1.75 | 2.75 | 3.25 | 3.75 | 4.00 | 4.25 | 4.75 | 4.75 |
| CBB (O/N Deposit Rate) | 1.00 | 2.00 | 2.50 | 3.00 | 3.25 | 3.50 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| CBO (O/N Repo Rate) | 0.75 | 1.50 | 2.00 | 2.50 | 2.75 | 3.00 | 3.50 | 3.50 |
| CBE (O/N Deposit Rate) | 9.25 | 12.25 | 12.75 | 12.75 | 13.00 | 13.25 | 13.25 | 13.25 |
Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research.