Emirates NBD Research
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Rates Forecasts
| Government bonds | 14-Jul-21 | Sep-21 | Dec-21 | Mar-22 | Jun-22 | Sep-22 | Dec-22 | Mar-23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | ||||||||
| 2yr yield: % | 0.24 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.30 | 0.35 | 0.35 | 0.50 |
| 10yr yield: % | 1.39 | 1.55 | 1.75 | 1.90 | 2.00 | 2.25 | 2.50 | 2.75 |
| EUR (bunds) | ||||||||
| 2yr yield: % | -0.68 | -0.60 | -0.60 | -0.55 | -0.50 | -0.40 | -0.40 | -0.30 |
| 10yr yield: % | -0.30 | -0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| GBP | ||||||||
| 2yr yield: % | 0.09 | 0.10 | 0.15 | 0.20 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| 10yr yield: % | 0.66 | 0.80 | 0.90 | 0.90 | 1.00 | 1.10 | 1.20 | 1.25 |
| JPY | ||||||||
| 2yr yield: % | -0.13 | -0.10 | -0.10 | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 10yr yield: % | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.10 |
Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research.
| Interbank market | 23-Sep-21 | Sep-21 | Dec-21 | Mar-22 | Jun-22 | Sep-22 | Dec-22 | Mar-23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD 3M LIBOR | 0.13 | 0.15 | 0.20 | 0.25 | 0.30 | 0.30 | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| SOFR | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| AED 3M EIBOR | 0.38 | 0.30 | 0.35 | 0.40 | 0.45 | 0.45 | 0.55 | 0.65 |
Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research.
| Policy rates | 14-Jul-21 | Sep-21 | Dec-21 | Mar-22 | Jun-22 | Sep-22 | Dec-22 | Mar-23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Funds target rate (upper bound) | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| ECB (Deposit Rate) | -0.50 | -0.50 | -0.50 | -0.50 | -0.50 | -0.50 | -0.50 | -0.50 |
| BoE (Bank Rate) | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| BoJ (Policy Balance Rate) | -0.10 | -0.10 | -0.10 | -0.10 | -0.10 | -0.10 | -0.10 | -0.10 |
| SNB (Policy Rate) | -0.75 | -0.75 | -0.75 | -0.75 | -0.75 | -0.75 | -0.75 | -0.75 |
| RBA (Cash Target Rate) | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| RBI (Repo Rate) | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.25 |
| SCB (Reverse Repo) | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.75 |
| CBUAE (Repo Rate) | 0.65 | 0.65 | 0.65 | 0.65 | 0.65 | 0.65 | 0.65 | 0.90 |
| CBK (O/N Repo Rate) | 0.88 | 0.88 | 0.88 | 0.88 | 0.88 | 0.88 | 0.88 | 1.13 |
| CBB (O/N Deposit Rate) | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 1.00 |
| CBO (O/N Repo Rate) | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.75 |
| CBE (O/N Deposit Rate) | 8.25 | 8.25 | 8.25 | 8.25 | 8.25 | 8.25 | 8.25 | 8.25 |
Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research.