MENA Importers Forecasts

 

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Egypt* 2019 2020 2021f 2022f 2023f
Nominal GDP $bn 291.8 359.0 403.2 401.5 405.5
Real GDP % 5.6 3.6 3.3 5.3 5.8
Current A/C % GDP -3.7 -3.2 -5.0 -4.1 -3.7
Budget Balance % GDP -8.6 -8.0 -7.4 -6.7 -5.7
CPI % 9.4 5.1 5.2 9.0 8.0
Jordan 2019 2020 2021f 2022f 2023f
Nominal GDP $bn 44.5 43.7 46.5 49.3 52.1
Real GDP % 2.0 -1.6 2.2 3.2 2.9
Current A/C % GDP -2.1 -8.1 -8.4 -5.9 -5.4
Budget Balance % GDP -3.7 -7.7 -8.0 -7.5 -6.7
CPI % 0.3 0.3 1.4 2.5 2.6
Lebanon 2019 2020 2021f 2022f 2023f
Nominal GDP $bn 53.6 63.6 114.9 64.9 81.6
Real GDP % -7.2 -25.0 -0.7 2.9 6.6
Current A/C % GDP -21.3 -3.5 -5.3 -10.6 -7.2
Budget Balance % GDP -10.9 -3.2 -3.1 -2.2 -1.4
CPI % 10.1 84.3 145.0 90.0 20.0
Morocco 2019 2020 2021f 2022f 2023f
Nominal GDP $bn 119.9 114.8 131.4 136.7 146.5
Real GDP % 2.6 -6.3 6.9 3.1 4.2
Current A/C % GDP -3.7 -1.5 -3.3 -3.8 -3.4
Budget Balance % GDP -4.0 -7.5 -6.5 -5.8 -5.4
CPI % 0.3 0.7 1.4 3.0 1.8
Tunisia 2019 2020 2021f 2022f 2023f
Nominal GDP $bn 40.1 36.2 37.3 36.5 36.3
Real GDP % 1.0 -9.7 3.0 3.1 2.8
Current A/C % GDP -8.4 -7.0 -6.6 -5.9 -5.4
Budget Balance % GDP -3.6 -11.1 -8.2 -6.8 -6.7
CPI % 6.7 5.6 5.7 5.9 5.5
Oil Importers (GDP weighted avg) 2019 2020 2021f 2022f 2023f
Nominal GDP $bn 192.7 241.9 268.1 301.8 304.0
Real GDP % 3.1 -2.3 3.2 4.3 4.9
Current A/C % GDP -5.6 -3.5 -5.0 -4.8 -4.2
Budget Balance % GDP -7.1 -7.6 -6.6 -6.3 -5.4
CPI % 6.5 12.1 26.2 14.5 7.6

Source: Haver Analytics, National sources, Emirates NBD Research

* Egypt data refers to fiscal year (July-June)