MENA Importers Forecasts

 

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Egypt* 2018 2019 2020e 2021f 2022f
Nominal GDP $bn 241.5 291.8 359.0 393.1 430.4
Real GDP % 5.3 5.6 3.6 3.3 5.3
Current A/C % GDP -2.5 -3.7 -3.2 -4.0 -3.6
Budget Balance % GDP -9.8 -8.6 -8.0 -9.2 -7.8
CPI % 14.4 9.4 5.1 5.1 6.0
Jordan 2018 2019 2020e 2021f 2022f
Nominal GDP $bn 42.9 44.5 43.7 46.5 49.3
Real GDP % 1.9 2.0 -1.4 2.2 3.2
Current A/C % GDP -6.9 -2.1 -8.0 -8.8 -5.8
Budget Balance % GDP -2.6 -3.7 -7.0 -6.7 -6.6
CPI % 4.5 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.8
Lebanon 2018 2019 2020e 2021f 2022f
Nominal GDP $bn 53.1 54.1 42.5 46.5 50.4
Real GDP % -1.9 -5.6 -27.3 -4.7 2.9
Current A/C % GDP -25.2 -21.3 -16.9 -12.7 -9.8
Budget Balance % GDP -11.4 -10.9 -16.1 -12.4 -8.1
CPI % 6.1 10.1 84.3 55.0 22.5
Morocco 2018 2019 2020e 2021f 2022f
Nominal GDP $bn 118.1 119.9 114.8 130.7 136.3
Real GDP % 3.2 2.6 -6.3 5.0 4.3
Current A/C % GDP -5.3 -3.7 -1.5 -3.5 -3.6
Budget Balance % GDP -3.7 -4.0 -7.6 -6.3 -5.9
CPI % 1.8 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.7
Tunisia 2018 2019 2020e 2021f 2022f
Nominal GDP $bn 39.9 40.1 36.5 38.4 37.1
Real GDP % 2.7 1.0 -8.8 3.0 3.9
Current A/C % GDP -11.2 -8.5 -7.3 -8.5 -7.4
Budget Balance % GDP -4.8 -3.6 -11.0 -8.0 -6.6
CPI % 7.4 6.7 5.6 5.5 5.7
Oil Importers (GDP weighted avg) 2018 2019 2020e 2021f 2022f
Nominal GDP $bn 158.5 192.8 246.6 271.7 299.8
Real GDP % 3.5 3.2 -1.6 3.0 4.7
Current A/C % GDP -6.7 -5.6 -4.5 -5.1 -4.2
Budget Balance % GDP -7.5 -7.1 -7.9 -8.1 -7.1
CPI % 9.1 6.5 9.6 10.6 6.6

Source: Haver Analytics, National sources, Emirates NBD Research

* Egypt data refers to fiscal year (July-June)