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The coronavirus pandemic is causing untold disruption to global output. Central banks and governments are trying to cushion the blow, leaving markets to constantly reprice the economic recovery.
Ever more stringent measures imposed by governments across the world in a bid to impede the spread of the Covid-19 coronavirus will weigh heavily on economic growth this year.
The optimism that greeted the signing of a phase one trade deal between the US and China last month has been derailed by the outbreak of the coronavirus in China.
Despite the imminent signing of a phase-one trade deal between the U.S. and China, 2020 has already shown us that risks are unlikely to go away.
MONTHLY INSIGHTS, MONTHLY
Monthly Insights June 2020
Monthly Insights: 15 January 2020
Monthly Insights February 2020
Monthly Insights March 2020
November 2019 Monthly Insights
Recession risks continue to be priced out in the US and 2020 is likely to be a year of stabilization albeit at relatively low levels of growth in other parts of the world.
MONTHLY INSIGHTS, TOURISM
Some optimism is emerging regarding Brexit and trade wars, contributing to a dialing back of risk. This is just as well as the macro environment continues to deteriorate.
Trade, geopolitics and Brexit are all contributing to rising risk premiums with little end in sight.
A series of events are contributing to heightened uncertainty and renewed risk aversion, including the cautious rate cut from the Fed.
Rising geopolitical tensions, uncertainty around US-China trade discussions and a continued softening in economic data globally are likely to weigh on markets over the summer.
Monthly Insights June 2020
FX Week - 14 June 2020
Oil rally begins to stall
Global equities moved higher
FX Week - 21 June 2020
Renewed trade tensions between the US and China are casting a shadow over growth prospects in most parts of the world.
Although the IMF downgraded its global growth outlook markets are detecting some tentative signs of improvement on a number of fronts which have allowed the rally in risk appetite to continue.
Global growth concerns have deepened over the last month, such that more central banks have turned dovish including the Federal Reserve.
Despite downgraded global growth outlooks, financial markets have performed relatively well so far this year.
As the year end comes into view the outlook for 2019 is becoming increasingly hazy and volatility is rising.
Rising volatility is spreading from emerging to developed markets, raising questions about the sustainability of strong growth in 2019, with risks likely to outweigh opportunities.
The passage of summer has seen no let up in the pressure on emerging markets with monetary policy normalization in the US and trade war rhetoric exposing fragilities in many parts of the world.
World Bank estimates a percentage decline in global trade from increased tariffs by 2020
Global activity readings dipped at the start of the year
ECONOMICS, MONTHLY INSIGHTS
Global trade threats have abated slightly and the geopolitical tone has improved. However, these issues have not gone away and could still be a headwind to markets as well as to growth.
MONTHLY INSIGHTS, ECONOMICS
Central banks are continuing the process of monetary policy normalization, with rising interest rates in some cases and preparation for tightening in others.
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