Emirates NBD Research
 

Find anything about our articles and more.
Enter a query in the search input above, and results will be displayed as you type.

Try typing "Dubai Economics", "Dubai GDP", "GCC Macro"

Emirates NBD
Search
Subscribe
   
  • Home
  • Economics

    Emirates NBD Research provides detailed coverage of 16 GCC and MENA economies, analysing them from a top down macro and strategic perspective as well as by a bottom up sector by sector approach.

    • SUBTOPICS
    • GCC Macro
    • MENA Macro
    • Global Macro
    • Sector Economics
    • Monthly Insights

     

    Latest Article e-commerce: Only warming up
    Latest Article Economic Calendar 12 April
    Latest Article Jordan outlook

     

  • Markets

    Emirates NBD Research publishes reports on global forex, rates and commodities, as well as regional fixed income and equity markets.

    • SUBTOPICS
    • Foreign Exchange
    • Fixed Income
    • Commodities
    • Equities
    • Monthly Insights

     

    Latest Article IEA raises oil demand outlook
    Latest Article Metals markets to benefit from vaccines and stimulus
    Latest Article OPEC surprises again

     

  • Daily
  • PMIs

    Emirates NBD sponsors Purchasing Managers’ Indices for the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Dubai. The indices are compiled by IHS Markit, the leading global provider of financial market data.

    • SUBTOPICS
    • UAE PMI
    • Saudi Arabia PMI
    • Egypt PMI
    • Dubai PMI
    • Methodology

     

    Latest Article Dubai PMI: Higher input costs squeeze margins in March
    Latest Article UAE PMI improves in March, but global supply constraints are raising input costs
    Latest Article Dubai PMI rose in February

     

  • About Us
  • EmiratesNBD.com
  • Subscribe
MARKETS > ECONOMICS

UAE PMI: Backlogs surge as employment remains anaemic

Khatija Haque - Head of Research & Chief Economist
Published Date: 03 July 2018

Facebook
Linkedin
Twitter
Email
Print

 

The Emirates NBD Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the UAE rose to a 2018-high of 57.1 in June, as both output and new orders rose at a fastest pace this year.  New export orders increased for the third month in a row but at a slightly slower rate than in May. 

Despite the surge in business activity and new work, employment was broadly unchanged in June, with less than 1% of firms surveyed indicating they had hired new workers last month.  As a result of strong new order growth and no increase in employment, the backlogs of work surged in June, with this index rising to 59.8, the highest reading in the nearly 10-year series history.  Backlogs have been rising at a faster pace since February this year, indicating capacity constraints in the non-oil private sector are being reached.  In our view this is unsustainable, and we expect firms to boost hiring in Q3 if new work continues to rise as strongly as it has in recent months.      

Some of the strong demand recorded in June was partly due to competitive pricing and promotions, as average selling prices declined again in June, although to a lesser extent than in May.  Input costs inflation also moderated however, rising at the slowest rate since May 2017.    

In the context of rising new orders, easing pricing pressure as well as recent announcements of fiscal stimulus and higher oil prices, firms remain highly optimistic about their future order growth.  Nearly 70% of all firms surveyed in June expected their output to be higher in 12 months’ time, compared with just 14.5% in the February survey. 

Overall, the June survey data supports our view that the UAE’s non-oil sectors will see faster growth this year relative to 2017.  Moreover, the decision by OPEC to increase oil output in the coming months is likely to be reflected in higher oil production by the UAE in H2, which poses upside risks to our oil sector and total GDP forecast for 2018.  

UAE PMI : Surging backlogs point tp capacity constraints

Source: IHS Markit,Emirates NBD Research

Click here to Download Full article

Written By:
Khatija Haque, Head of Research & Chief Economist

RELATED ARTICLES

Monthly Insights: January 2021
17.01.2021

Economic Calendar - 11 January 2021
10.01.2021

Brexit is not over yet
04.01.2021

Joe Biden wins presidential election
08.11.2020

Green bond market has room to expand in MENA
21.10.2020

See all

LATEST ARTICLES

IEA raises oil demand outlook
14.04.2021

Morocco outlook
08.04.2021

Metals markets to benefit from vaccines and stimulus
05.04.2021

See all
 

 Subscribe to our newsletter


Never miss out what is going on in UAE Economics

KEEP READING MORE

PMIs: UAE reading disappoints

The UAE headline PMI slipped below the neutral 50 level in October, for the second time in three months, declining to 49.5 from 51.0 in September.

ECONOMICS, PMIS - 03.11.2020

Dollar weakness remains entrenched

Politics, coronavirus and growth all weigh against the dollar in 2021.

MARKETS, FX - 07.01.2021

MENA Quarterly Q3 2020

Our regional MENA roundup for the third quarter

ECONOMICS, MENA MACRO - 19.07.2020

 

CBE keeps rates on hold

The Central Bank of Egypt kept its benchmark overnight deposit rate on hold at 8.25% at its February 4 meeting.

ECONOMICS, EGYPT - 07.02.2021

GCC budget deficits to remain substantial even as economic outlook improves

Oil price will remain below GCC budget break evens in 2021 and sovereigns will need to issue more debt to finance budget shortfalls.

ECONOMICS, GCC MACRO - 17.02.2021

OPEC and allies to keep oil market hot

We now expect oil balances to be tighter and prices to be higher

MARKETS, COMMODITIES - 07.03.2021

Monthly Insights - November 2020

Our final Monthly Insights publication of 2020, looking at the latest developments and trends in global and regional economics and markets.

ECONOMICS, MONTHLY INSIGHTS - 25.11.2020

  • Economics
  • Markets
  • PMIs
  • About Us
  • Subscribe to our publications
  • Economics
  • GCC Macro
  • MENA Macro
  • Global Macro
  • Sector Economics
  • Markets
  • Foreign Exchange
  • Fixed Income
  • Commodities
  • Equities
  • PMIs
  • UAE PMI
  • Saudi Arabia PMI
  • Egypt PMI
  • Dubai Economy Tracker
  • Methodology
  • About Us
  • Subscribe to our publications

 


Terms and Conditions
Copyright © 2021 Emirates NBD Bank PJSC. All Rights Reserved