Emirates NBD Research
 

Find anything about our articles and more.
Enter a query in the search input above, and results will be displayed as you type.

Try typing "Dubai Economics", "Dubai GDP", "GCC Macro"

Emirates NBD
Search
Subscribe
   
  • Home
  • Economics

    Emirates NBD Research provides detailed coverage of 16 GCC and MENA economies, analysing them from a top down macro and strategic perspective as well as by a bottom up sector by sector approach.

    • SUBTOPICS
    • GCC Macro
    • MENA Macro
    • Global Macro
    • Sector Economics
    • Monthly Insights

     

    Latest Article UAE: A mixed bag of data in January
    Latest Article Moroccan growth will outperform MENA oil importer peers in 2021
    Latest Article Tunisian economy facing manifold challenges

     

  • Markets

    Emirates NBD Research publishes reports on global forex, rates and commodities, as well as regional fixed income and equity markets.

    • SUBTOPICS
    • Foreign Exchange
    • Fixed Income
    • Commodities
    • Equities
    • Monthly Insights

     

    Latest Article IEA lowers demand forecasts
    Latest Article Monthly Insights: January 2021
    Latest Article Gold prices stumble to start 2021

     

  • Daily
  • PMIs

    Emirates NBD sponsors Purchasing Managers’ Indices for the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Dubai. The indices are compiled by IHS Markit, the leading global provider of financial market data.

    • SUBTOPICS
    • UAE PMI
    • Saudi Arabia PMI
    • Egypt PMI
    • Dubai PMI
    • Methodology

     

    Latest Article Dubai PMI moves back into expansion territory in December
    Latest Article Regional PMIs- Saudi PMI rises to year high in December
    Latest Article Regional PMI round-up: A mixed bag in November

     

  • About Us
  • EmiratesNBD.com
  • Subscribe
MARKETS > ECONOMICS

Monthly Insights: Trade and currency tensions rise

Published Date: 06 August 2019

Facebook
Linkedin
Twitter
Email
Print

 

Many of the assumptions about 2019 are changing, as the global economic landscape deteriorates amidst rising tensions over trade and currencies. Central banks are once again under pressure to provide a response, but increasingly it seems as if monetary policy is suffering from ‘diminishing returns’ while governments appear reluctant to expand fiscally. 

 

Global macro: A series of events are contributing to heightened uncertainty and renewed risk aversion, including the Fed’s cautious rate cut, re-escalating U.S. China trade tensions, and the increasing risk of an ugly Brexit.

GCC macro: While FDI inflows into the GCC have risen over the last year, the net FDI data shows that the Gulf remains a net exporter of FDI to the rest of the world.                       .                     

MENA macro: While global FDI/GDP will remain under pressure in 2019 following its sharp fall last year, we expect that North Africa will continue to hold up.

EM Focus: India is currently in the midst of prolonged slowdown as the tailwind of a stable government becomes infructuous and easy monetary policy fails to kick start investments. Ongoing concern over the health of the global economy is also weighing on India’s economy.

Interest Rates: Weakening global growth and safe haven bid on the back of the sudden collapse of the US-China trade talks pushed most government bond yields down.

Credit Markets: Risk off sentiment on the back of escalating trade conflicts caused credit spreads to widen. However, bond prices remained resilient as a result of the cushion provided by falling benchmark yields.

Currencies: The first interest rate cut in over ten years from the Federal Reserve last month still resulted in the dollar gaining ground, due to resilient U.S. data and because of its still relative attractiveness compared to other currencies.

Commodities: Gold has rallied to its highest level in six years as the US-China trade war worsens and central banks adopt a more dovish stance. These factors will help keep gold bid higher until the end of the year but won’t extend as much support to the rest of the precious metals complex.

Click here to Download Full article

Written By:
,

RELATED ARTICLES

Monthly Insights: January 2021
17.01.2021

Economic Calendar - 11 January 2021
10.01.2021

Brexit is not over yet
04.01.2021

Joe Biden wins presidential election
08.11.2020

Green bond market has room to expand in MENA
21.10.2020

See all

LATEST ARTICLES

IEA lowers demand forecasts
19.01.2021

Dollar weakness remains entrenched
07.01.2021

OPEC diplomacy key to stable oil markets
05.01.2021

See all
 

 Subscribe to our newsletter


Never miss out what is going on in UAE Economics

KEEP READING MORE

Monthly Insights: January 2021

A round-up of our key research insights and forecasts this month.

ECONOMICS, MARKETS - 17.01.2021

Regional growth to be driven by improving global backdrop

We expect GCC growth to average 2.3 percent in 2021 following an estimated 5 percent contraction in 2020.

ECONOMICS, GCC MACRO - 13.01.2021

Iraqi finances will remain under pressure

Iraq implemented a difficult currency devaluation in December last year, but its finances will remain under pressure this year and growth will be weak

ECONOMICS, MENA MACRO - 12.01.2021

 

MENA Quarterly Q4 2020

Our quarterly report on MENA economies

ECONOMICS, MENA MACRO - 13.10.2020

OPEC and allies reach agreement for 2021

The oil market should be able to absorb modest production increases

MARKETS, COMMODITIES - 06.12.2020

Green bond market has room to expand in MENA

Renewables projects across the region could attract new pool of investors.

MARKETS, FIXED INCOME - 21.10.2020

Regional PMI round-up: A mixed bag in November

UAE PMI unchanged at 49.5 in November.

ECONOMICS, PMIS - 08.12.2020

  • Economics
  • Markets
  • PMIs
  • About Us
  • Subscribe to our publications
  • Economics
  • GCC Macro
  • MENA Macro
  • Global Macro
  • Sector Economics
  • Markets
  • Foreign Exchange
  • Fixed Income
  • Commodities
  • Equities
  • PMIs
  • UAE PMI
  • Saudi Arabia PMI
  • Egypt PMI
  • Dubai Economy Tracker
  • Methodology
  • About Us
  • Subscribe to our publications

 


Terms and Conditions
Copyright © 2021 Emirates NBD Bank PJSC. All Rights Reserved