Emirates NBD Research
 

Find anything about our articles and more.
Enter a query in the search input above, and results will be displayed as you type.

Try typing "Dubai Economics", "Dubai GDP", "GCC Macro"

Emirates NBD
Search
Subscribe
   
  • Home
  • Economics

    Emirates NBD Research provides detailed coverage of 16 GCC and MENA economies, analysing them from a top down macro and strategic perspective as well as by a bottom up sector by sector approach.

    • SUBTOPICS
    • GCC Macro
    • MENA Macro
    • Global Macro
    • Sector Economics
    • Monthly Insights

     

    Latest Article UAE: A mixed bag of data in January
    Latest Article Moroccan growth will outperform MENA oil importer peers in 2021
    Latest Article Tunisian economy facing manifold challenges

     

  • Markets

    Emirates NBD Research publishes reports on global forex, rates and commodities, as well as regional fixed income and equity markets.

    • SUBTOPICS
    • Foreign Exchange
    • Fixed Income
    • Commodities
    • Equities
    • Monthly Insights

     

    Latest Article IEA lowers demand forecasts
    Latest Article Monthly Insights: January 2021
    Latest Article Gold prices stumble to start 2021

     

  • Daily
  • PMIs

    Emirates NBD sponsors Purchasing Managers’ Indices for the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Dubai. The indices are compiled by IHS Markit, the leading global provider of financial market data.

    • SUBTOPICS
    • UAE PMI
    • Saudi Arabia PMI
    • Egypt PMI
    • Dubai PMI
    • Methodology

     

    Latest Article Dubai PMI moves back into expansion territory in December
    Latest Article Regional PMIs- Saudi PMI rises to year high in December
    Latest Article Regional PMI round-up: A mixed bag in November

     

  • About Us
  • EmiratesNBD.com
  • Subscribe
MONTHLY INSIGHTS > ECONOMICS

Monthly Insights - November 2020

Khatija Haque - Head of Research & Chief Economist
Edward Bell - Senior Director, Market Economics
Shady Elborno - Head of Macro Strategy
Daniel Richards - MENA Economist
Jamal Mattar - Research Analyst
Published Date: 25 November 2020

Facebook
Linkedin
Twitter
Email
Print

 

As an eventful 2020 draws towards its close we take stock of how developments towards the end of the year - not least the positive news with regards potential Covid-19 vaccines - have boosted market optimism, while at the same time cautioning that the recovery will be uneven in many quarters and that there remain difficult months ahead.

 

Global macro: The rapid-fire succession of positive news with regards to Covid-19 vaccine trials in recent weeks has instilled a sense of optimism into global markets not seen in months. Nevertheless, the next several months will remain difficult, and policy missteps could slow the 2021 recovery.

GCC macro: Positive news on Covid-19 vaccines suggests there is light at the end of the covid tunnel.  However, we expect the recovery in the GCC next year to be slow and uneven.   

MENA macro: Oil production curbs and the Covid-19 pandemic have weighed heavily on the Iraqi economy in 2020, and we project a contraction of -12.5% this year. Looking ahead to 2021 we anticipate a return to growth, but output will remain substantially lower than it was in 2019 still, as a potential extension of OPEC+ mandated oil production curbs and a lingering pandemic fallout weighs on the recovery. We forecast a 3.4% expansion next year.

Currencies: The US election has dominated the FX landscape in the last few weeks. With that now behind us policy developments in the UK and EU will set the scene for a weaker USD as we head into 2021.

Financial Markets: US treasury markets have now absorbed the impact of Joe Biden becoming president-elect and several successful Covid-19 vaccine candidates. As yields have pushed upward we think there are still some strong forces ahead that will prevent them from popping too much higher.

Commodities: OPEC+ faces a challenging final meeting of the year as oil demand conditions remain soft and members begin to chafe at perpetual production restrictions.

Sector report: Dubai’s real estate market had an interesting year in 2020 as enthusiasm for Expo 2020 supported market dynamics in Q1, before Covid-19 lockdowns in Q2 ground much of the activity in the market to a halt. Activity has picked up in Q3, however Covid-19 has changed the dynamics.

This is our last Monthly Insights publication for 2020; we will resume in January 2021 and wish all our readers well over the festive season. 

Click here to Download Full article

Written By:
Khatija Haque, Head of Research & Chief Economist

RELATED ARTICLES

Monthly Insights: January 2021
17.01.2021

Monthly Insights - October 2020
15.10.2020

Monthly Insights - July 2020
23.07.2020

Monthly Insights June 2020
17.06.2020

Monthly Insights March 2020
18.03.2020

See all

LATEST ARTICLES

IEA lowers demand forecasts
19.01.2021

Dollar weakness remains entrenched
07.01.2021

OPEC diplomacy key to stable oil markets
05.01.2021

See all
 

 Subscribe to our newsletter


Never miss out what is going on in UAE Economics

KEEP READING MORE

Monthly Insights: January 2021

A round-up of our key research insights and forecasts this month.

ECONOMICS, MARKETS - 17.01.2021

Regional growth to be driven by improving global backdrop

We expect GCC growth to average 2.3 percent in 2021 following an estimated 5 percent contraction in 2020.

ECONOMICS, GCC MACRO - 13.01.2021

Iraqi finances will remain under pressure

Iraq implemented a difficult currency devaluation in December last year, but its finances will remain under pressure this year and growth will be weak

ECONOMICS, MENA MACRO - 12.01.2021

 

MENA Quarterly Q4 2020

Our quarterly report on MENA economies

ECONOMICS, MENA MACRO - 13.10.2020

OPEC and allies reach agreement for 2021

The oil market should be able to absorb modest production increases

MARKETS, COMMODITIES - 06.12.2020

Green bond market has room to expand in MENA

Renewables projects across the region could attract new pool of investors.

MARKETS, FIXED INCOME - 21.10.2020

Regional PMI round-up: A mixed bag in November

UAE PMI unchanged at 49.5 in November.

ECONOMICS, PMIS - 08.12.2020

  • Economics
  • Markets
  • PMIs
  • About Us
  • Subscribe to our publications
  • Economics
  • GCC Macro
  • MENA Macro
  • Global Macro
  • Sector Economics
  • Markets
  • Foreign Exchange
  • Fixed Income
  • Commodities
  • Equities
  • PMIs
  • UAE PMI
  • Saudi Arabia PMI
  • Egypt PMI
  • Dubai Economy Tracker
  • Methodology
  • About Us
  • Subscribe to our publications

 


Terms and Conditions
Copyright © 2021 Emirates NBD Bank PJSC. All Rights Reserved