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Timothy Fox - Head of Research & Chief Economist
Published Date: 24 February 2020
A month on since markets first became aware of coronavirus and the issue is still at the forefront of most investors' minds. The majority think it will only have a temporary impact on the global economy, with a V-shape recovery being priced in equity markets.
Despite the widely-documented negative effects on trade, output and supply chains, as well as warnings from prominent corporations such as Apple and Puma, it is assumed that central banks will act quickly to underpin a swift economic recovery. However, this optimism sits uneasily with other markets such as gold and US treasuries. It also conflicts with incoming economic data, as well as with evidence that already historically low interest rates are having a diminishing impact in terms of promoting growth.
Monthly Insights February 2020
Monthly Insights October 2019
Synchronised central bank rate cuts