Emirates NBD Research
 

Find anything about our articles and more.
Enter a query in the search input above, and results will be displayed as you type.

Try typing "Dubai Economics", "Dubai GDP", "GCC Macro"

Emirates NBD
Search
Subscribe
   
  • Home
  • Economics

    Emirates NBD Research provides detailed coverage of 16 GCC and MENA economies, analysing them from a top down macro and strategic perspective as well as by a bottom up sector by sector approach.

    • SUBTOPICS
    • GCC Macro
    • MENA Macro
    • Global Macro
    • Sector Economics
    • Monthly Insights

     

    Latest Article Dubai PMI: Higher input costs squeeze margins in March
    Latest Article Lebanon outlook
    Latest Article Economic Calendar 29 March

     

  • Markets

    Emirates NBD Research publishes reports on global forex, rates and commodities, as well as regional fixed income and equity markets.

    • SUBTOPICS
    • Foreign Exchange
    • Fixed Income
    • Commodities
    • Equities
    • Monthly Insights

     

    Latest Article Metals markets to benefit from vaccines and stimulus
    Latest Article OPEC surprises again
    Latest Article OPEC to stick to lower output levels

     

  • Daily
  • PMIs

    Emirates NBD sponsors Purchasing Managers’ Indices for the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Dubai. The indices are compiled by IHS Markit, the leading global provider of financial market data.

    • SUBTOPICS
    • UAE PMI
    • Saudi Arabia PMI
    • Egypt PMI
    • Dubai PMI
    • Methodology

     

    Latest Article Dubai PMI: Higher input costs squeeze margins in March
    Latest Article UAE PMI improves in March, but global supply constraints are raising input costs
    Latest Article Dubai PMI rose in February

     

  • About Us
  • EmiratesNBD.com
  • Subscribe
GCC MACRO > PMIS

Dubai PMI: Slowest quarter since Q1 2016

Khatija Haque - Head of Research & Chief Economist
Published Date: 09 October 2019

Facebook
Linkedin
Twitter
Email
Print

 

Although the Dubai PMI rose slightly to 52.6 in September, the average reading for the third quarter was the lowest since Q1 2016.  This signals a slower rate of growth than the survey data pointed to in H1 2019.  There was a marked deceleration in new order growth in Q3, with the September reading for this component the lowest since February 2016. 

Output growth picked up in September from August but remains soft compared with the first half of the year.  Further price discounting may have contributed to the rise in output/ business activity last month, with more than 8% of firms reporting lower selling prices in September compared with August.  The vast majority of businesses reported no change to employment in September, although the seasonally adjusted employment index rose slightly to 50.3.  On average, there was no job growth in Dubai’s private sector in Q3 2019, nor in fact for the year to date.

Firms appeared to be a little more cautious looking forward: stocks of inventories increased at the slowest rate since January, and the business expectations index fell to the lowest level so far this year.  We note that nearly 60% of firms still expected their output to be higher in a year’s time, but this was the lowest percentage since March 2018.

Dubai PMI declines in Q3 2019

Source: IHS Markit, Emirates NBD Research

The construction sector index was unchanged at 50.6 in September, just fractionally above the “no change” level for two months in a row.  New work growth in the sector was the weakest since March 2019 and output growth was the slowest since February 2016.

New orders in the wholesale & retail trade sector grew at the slowest pace since October 2016, although output/ business activity was similar to August.  Price discounting in the wholesale and retail trade sector was the steepest since April, despite sharply higher input costs, further squeezing firms’ margins.

There was some improvement in new work and output in the travel & tourism sector in September, although the overall sector index was broadly unchanged from July and August at 53.7.  The average for Q3 suggests slower growth in the travel & tourism sector relative to Q2.   

 

Written By:
Khatija Haque, Head of Research & Chief Economist

RELATED ARTICLES

UAE PMI improves in March, but global supply constraints are raising input costs
05.04.2021

Dubai PMI rose in February
09.03.2021

UAE and Saudi PMIs slip in February
03.03.2021

Regional PMI round-up: A mixed bag in November
08.12.2020

Dubai PMI slips to 49.9 in October
09.11.2020

See all

LATEST ARTICLES

Lebanon outlook
08.04.2021

Morocco outlook
08.04.2021

Metals markets to benefit from vaccines and stimulus
05.04.2021

See all
 

 Subscribe to our newsletter


Never miss out what is going on in UAE Economics

KEEP READING MORE

Dubai PMI slips to 49.9 in October

Business optimism at series low of 50.6.

PMIS, ECONOMICS - 09.11.2020

WFH adoption will pose challenges to policymakers

The Covid-19 crisis has accelerated the transition to more remote patterns of working, which poses fundamental questions regarding not only how we will work in future, but equally how we will live.

ECONOMICS, GLOBAL MACRO - 11.03.2021

CBE keeps rates on hold

The Central Bank of Egypt kept its benchmark rates steady at its March 18 MPC meeting, the third consecutive hold.

ECONOMICS, EGYPT - 21.03.2021

 

OPEC and allies to keep oil market hot

We now expect oil balances to be tighter and prices to be higher

MARKETS, COMMODITIES - 07.03.2021

GCC budget deficits to remain substantial even as economic outlook improves

Oil price will remain below GCC budget break evens in 2021 and sovereigns will need to issue more debt to finance budget shortfalls.

ECONOMICS, GCC MACRO - 17.02.2021

CBE keeps rates on hold

The Central Bank of Egypt kept its benchmark overnight deposit rate on hold at 8.25% at its February 4 meeting.

ECONOMICS, EGYPT - 07.02.2021

UAE: A mixed bag of data in January

The data released this month supports our view of a 6.9 percent contraction in 2020, but there is reason for optimism.

ECONOMICS, GCC MACRO - 21.01.2021

  • Economics
  • Markets
  • PMIs
  • About Us
  • Subscribe to our publications
  • Economics
  • GCC Macro
  • MENA Macro
  • Global Macro
  • Sector Economics
  • Markets
  • Foreign Exchange
  • Fixed Income
  • Commodities
  • Equities
  • PMIs
  • UAE PMI
  • Saudi Arabia PMI
  • Egypt PMI
  • Dubai Economy Tracker
  • Methodology
  • About Us
  • Subscribe to our publications

 


Terms and Conditions
Copyright © 2021 Emirates NBD Bank PJSC. All Rights Reserved