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Monthly Insights: January 2021

A round-up of our key research insights and forecasts this month.

ECONOMICS, MARKETS - 17.01.2021

Regional growth to be driven by improving global backdrop

We expect GCC growth to average 2.3 percent in 2021 following an estimated 5 percent contraction in 2020.

ECONOMICS, GCC MACRO - 13.01.2021

Lebanon continues to face multiple challenges

Lebanon will likely have a better year in 2021 than it had in 2020, when it was already dealing with crises on multiple fronts even before the coronavirus pandemic and then the Beirut blast in August.

ECONOMICS, MENA MACRO - 25.01.2021

UAE: A mixed bag of data in January

The data released this month supports our view of a 6.9 percent contraction in 2020, but there is reason for optimism.

ECONOMICS, GCC MACRO - 21.01.2021

Daily Outlook

Daily Outlook: ECB and CBRT keep rates on hold
25.01.2021

Economic Calendar - 25 January 2021
24.01.2021

US President Joe Biden hits the ground running
21.01.2021

Joe Biden due to be sworn in as US president
20.01.2021

Janet Yellen set for confirmation hearing today
19.01.2021

Moroccan growth will outperform MENA oil importer peers in 2021

We hold a fairly bullish view on Moroccan real GDP growth in 2021, projecting an expansion of 5.2 perce. If realised this would represent the strongest expansion amongst MENA oil importers this year.

ECONOMICS, MENA MACRO - 20.01.2021

IEA lowers demand forecasts

OPEC has room to gain market share in 2021.

MARKETS, COMMODITIES - 19.01.2021

Tunisian economy facing manifold challenges

While the Tunisian economy will return to growth in 2021 there remain manifold challenges to the recovery, not least elevated Covid-19 cases, rising unemployment and social unrest.

ECONOMICS, MENA MACRO - 18.01.2021

Dubai Property: Transaction volumes recover

The Dubai property market has showed an improvement in Q4 2020 data, compared to the previous quarter, however both sales and transactions remain lower than a year earlier.

ECONOMICS, SECTOR ECONOMICS - 18.01.2021

RBI will remain on hold in February

Despite lower-than-anticipated inflation in December we believe that the RBI will keep its benchmark interest rate on hold at 4.0% in February. Nevertheless, we still expect a 25bps cut later in 2021.

ECONOMICS, INDIA - 17.01.2021

Iraqi finances will remain under pressure

Iraq implemented a difficult currency devaluation in December last year, but its finances will remain under pressure this year and growth will be weak

ECONOMICS, MENA MACRO - 12.01.2021

Caveats remain to new year optimism

2021 has started the year on a positive footing as risk assets have gained momentum on the back of positive developments. Nevertheless, there remain caveats regarding the upside drivers.

ECONOMICS, GLOBAL MACRO - 12.01.2021

PMIs

Dubai PMI moves back into expansion territory in December
11.01.2021

Regional PMIs- Saudi PMI rises to year high in December
05.01.2021

Regional PMI round-up: A mixed bag in November
08.12.2020

Dubai PMI slips to 49.9 in October
09.11.2020

PMIs: UAE reading disappoints
03.11.2020

Dubai PMI moves back into expansion territory in December

The Dubai PMI rose to 51.0 in December 2020.

PMIS, ECONOMICS - 11.01.2021

Dubai Tourism: Green shoots

An update on the latest visitor numbers and hotel occupancy figures for Dubai.

ECONOMICS, TOURISM - 05.01.2021

OPEC diplomacy key to stable oil markets

A deal on output levels risks leaving OPEC and its partners frustrated

MARKETS, COMMODITIES - 05.01.2021

Regional PMIs- Saudi PMI rises to year high in December

A roundup of regional PMI survey results

PMIS, SAUDI PMI - 05.01.2021

Brexit is not over yet

The UK and the EU have signed a post-Brexit trade deal, removing a major threat to their economies. However, there remain significant questions, not least regarding the outlook for services.

ECONOMICS, MARKETS - 04.01.2021

Dubai 2021 budget and GDP estimates

Dubai approves AED 57.1bn budget for 2021 and estimates growth at 4 percent.

ECONOMICS, GCC MACRO - 27.12.2020

Regional PMI round-up: A mixed bag in November

UAE PMI unchanged at 49.5 in November.

ECONOMICS, PMIS - 08.12.2020

OPEC and allies reach agreement for 2021

The oil market should be able to absorb modest production increases

MARKETS, COMMODITIES - 06.12.2020

Monthly Insights - November 2020

Our final Monthly Insights publication of 2020, looking at the latest developments and trends in global and regional economics and markets.

ECONOMICS, MONTHLY INSIGHTS - 25.11.2020

DUBAI TRACKERS

Dubai PMI moves back into expansion territory in December

The Dubai PMI rose to 51.0 in December 2020.

PMIS, ECONOMICS - 11.01.2021

Dubai PMI softens in August

The headline PMI declined to 50.9 in August from 51.7 in July signaling a slower rate of expansion in the non-oil private sector last month.

PMIS, DUBAI PMI - 10.09.2020

Dubai PMI declines to new low in April

The Dubai PMI fell to a new record low of 41.7 in March, the second consecutive reading below the 50 level that separates expansion from contraction.

PMIS, ECONOMICS - 11.05.2020

 

Dubai PMI falls to new low in March

The Dubai PMI fell to a record low of 45.5 in March, signaling a contraction in the non-oil private sector.

PMIS, DUBAI ECONOMY TRACKER - 09.04.2020

Dubai PMI: Activity slows in January

The headline Dubai PMI declined to 50.6 in January from 52.3 in December signalling the softest growth in the non oil private sector since February 2016.

PMIS, GCC MACRO - 10.02.2020

Dubai PMI eases further in December

The Dubai PMI eased further to 52.3 in December from 53.5 in November, the lowest reading since August. While output increased at a slightly faster rate in December, new order growth slowed, with the

PMIS, GCC MACRO - 12.01.2020

Dubai PMI: Slowest quarter since Q1 2016

The Dubai PMI rose slightly to 52.6 in September, but the average reading for the third quarter was the lowest since Q1 2016.

PMIS, GCC MACRO - 09.10.2019

 
Read more on Trackers
 

MARKETS

Monthly Insights: January 2021

A round-up of our key research insights and forecasts this month.

ECONOMICS, MARKETS - 17.01.2021

IEA lowers demand forecasts

OPEC has room to gain market share in 2021.

MARKETS, COMMODITIES - 19.01.2021

MONTHLY INSIGHTS

Monthly Insights: January 2021
17.01.2021

Monthly Insights - November 2020
25.11.2020

Monthly Insights - October 2020
15.10.2020

Monthly Insights - September 2020
23.09.2020

 

Joe Biden wins presidential election

Spending plans may fall short of market expectations.

ECONOMICS, MARKETS - 08.11.2020

Markets pricing in Democratic victory

Anticipation of a Democratic win in the US election is sending yields higher.

MARKETS, FX - 27.10.2020

Energy markets focus on US presidential election

Oil industry braces for a Biden administration.

MARKETS, COMMODITIES - 25.10.2020

Green bond market has room to expand in MENA

Renewables projects across the region could attract new pool of investors.

MARKETS, FIXED INCOME - 21.10.2020

Read more on Markets

 


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